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1.
Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes ; 7(2): 109-121, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2181434

ABSTRACT

Objective: To test the hypothesis that the Monoclonal Antibody Screening Score performs consistently better in identifying the need for monoclonal antibody infusion throughout each "wave" of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant predominance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and that the infusion of contemporary monoclonal antibody treatments is associated with a lower risk of hospitalization. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the efficacy of monoclonal antibody treatment compared with that of no monoclonal antibody treatment in symptomatic adults who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 regardless of their risk factors for disease progression or vaccination status during different periods of SARS-CoV-2 variant predominance. The primary outcome was hospitalization within 28 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. The study was conducted on patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 from November 19, 2020, through May 12, 2022. Results: Of the included 118,936 eligible patients, hospitalization within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis occurred in 2.52% (456/18,090) of patients who received monoclonal antibody treatment and 6.98% (7,037/100,846) of patients who did not. Treatment with monoclonal antibody therapies was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization when using stratified data analytics, propensity scoring, and regression and machine learning models with and without adjustments for putative confounding variables, such as advanced age and coexisting medical conditions (eg, relative risk, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.14-0.17). Conclusion: Among patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, including those who have been vaccinated, monoclonal antibody treatment was associated with a lower risk of hospital admission during each wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

3.
Blood Cancer Discov ; 3(6): 481-489, 2022 11 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2020565

ABSTRACT

The anti-spike T-cell and antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in patients with B-cell malignancies were examined in a real-world setting. A next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based molecular assay was used to assess SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses. After the second dose, 58% (166/284) of seropositive and 45% (99/221) of seronegative patients display anti-spike T cells. The percentage of patients who displayed T-cell response was higher among patients receiving mRNA-1273 vaccines compared with those receiving BNT162b2 vaccines. After the third vaccination, 40% (137/342) of patients seroconverted, although only 22% displayed sufficient antibody levels associated with the production of neutralizing antibodies. 97% (717/738) of patients who were seropositive before the third dose had markedly elevated anti-spike antibody levels. Anti-spike antibody levels, but not T-cell responses, were depressed by B cell-directed therapies. Vaccinated patients with B-cell malignancies with a poor response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may remain vulnerable to COVID-19 infections. SIGNIFICANCE: This study represents the first investigation of SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses to vaccination in a patient registry using an NGS-based method for T-cell receptor repertoire-based analysis combined with anti-spike antibody assessments. Vaccinated patients with B cell-derived hematologic malignancies are likely at higher risk of infection or severe COVID-19. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 476.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hematologic Neoplasms , Humans , Antibody Formation , COVID-19 Vaccines , SARS-CoV-2 , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus , T-Lymphocytes , Antibodies, Viral , BNT162 Vaccine
4.
Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes ; 6(5): 409-419, 2022 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1914806

ABSTRACT

Objective: To assess the proportion of indeterminate QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) results in patients admitted for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and evaluate the factors associated with indeterminate QFT-Plus results. Patients and Methods: Data on COVID-19 admissions at Mayo Clinic in Florida were extracted between October 13, 2020, and September 20, 2021, and data from a prepandemic cohort were extracted between October 13, 2018, and September 20, 2019. A secondary analysis of the COVID-19 cohort was performed using gradient boosting modeling to generate variable importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations plots. Results: Our findings demonstrated more indeterminate QFT-Plus test results in patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 infection than in patients without COVID-19 (139 of 495, 28.1%). The factors associated with indeterminate QFT-Plus test results included elevated levels of C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase and interleukin-6 and included lower levels of leukocyte, lymphocyte, and platelet counts. Conclusion: The patients with severe COVID-19 had a higher likelihood of indeterminate QFT-Plus results, which were associated with elevated levels of inflammatory markers consistent with severe infection. Interferon-gamma release assay screening tests are likely confounded by COVID-19 infection itself, limiting the screening ability for latent tuberculosis infection reactivation. Indeterminate QFT-Plus results may also require follow-up QFT-Plus testing after patient recovery from COVID-19, increasing the cost and complexity of medical decision making and management. Additional risk assessments may be needed in this patient population for screening for latent tuberculosis infection in patients with severe COVID-19.

5.
J Intern Med ; 292(1): 127-135, 2022 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1759213

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: While COVID-19 immunization programs attempted to reach targeted rates, cases rose significantly since the emergence of the delta variant. This retrospective cohort study describes the correlation between antispike antibodies and outcomes of hospitalized, breakthrough cases during the delta variant surge. METHODS: All patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction hospitalized at Mayo Clinic Florida from 19 June 2021 to 11 November 2021 were considered for analysis. Cases were analyzed by vaccination status. Breakthrough cases were then analyzed by low and high antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, with a cut-off value of ≥132 U/ml. Outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), need for intensive care unit (ICU), mechanical ventilation, and mortality. We used 1:1 nearest neighbor propensity score matching without replacement to assess for confounders. RESULTS: Among 627 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, vaccine breakthrough cases were older with more comorbidities compared to unvaccinated. After propensity score matching, the unvaccinated patients had higher mortality (27 [28.4%] vs. 12 [12.6%], p = 0.002) and LOS (7 [1.0-57.0] vs. 5 [1.0-31.0] days, p = 0.011). In breakthrough cases, low-titer patients were more likely to be solid organ transplant recipients (16 [34.0%] vs. 9 [12.3%], p = 0.006), with higher need for ICU care (24 [51.1%] vs. 22 [11.0%], p = 0.034), longer hospital LOS (median 6 vs. 5 days, p = 0.013), and higher mortality (10 [21.3%] vs. 5 [6.8%], p = 0.025) than high-titer patients. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalized breakthrough cases were more likely to have underlying risk factors than unvaccinated patients. Low-spike antibody titers may serve as an indicator for poor prognosis in breakthrough cases admitted to the hospital.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19 , Hospitalization , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19 Vaccines , Humans , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 8: 707895, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1690436

ABSTRACT

Treatment of patients with COVID-19 using convalescent plasma from recently recovered patients has been shown to be safe, but the time course of change in clinical status following plasma transfusion in relation to baseline disease severity has not yet been described. We analyzed short, descriptive daily reports of patient status in 7,180 hospitalized recipients of COVID-19 convalescent plasma in the Mayo Clinic Expanded Access Program. We assessed, from the day following transfusion, whether the patient was categorized by his or her physician as better, worse or unchanged compared to the day before, and whether, on the reporting day, the patient received mechanical ventilation, was in the ICU, had died or had been discharged. Most patients improved following transfusion, but clinical improvement was most notable in mild to moderately ill patients. Patients classified as severely ill upon enrollment improved, but not as rapidly, while patients classified as critically ill/end-stage and patients on ventilators showed worsening of disease status even after treatment with convalescent plasma. Patients age 80 and over showed little or no clinical improvement following transfusion. Clinical status at the time of convalescent plasma treatment and age appear to be the primary factors in determining the therapeutic effectiveness of COVID-19 convalescent plasma among hospitalized patients.

7.
PLoS Med ; 18(12): e1003872, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581903

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The United States (US) Expanded Access Program (EAP) to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent plasma was initiated in response to the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19. While randomized clinical trials were in various stages of development and enrollment, there was an urgent need for widespread access to potential therapeutic agents. The objective of this study is to report on the demographic, geographical, and chronological characteristics of patients in the EAP, and key safety metrics following transfusion of COVID-19 convalescent plasma. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mayo Clinic served as the central institutional review board for all participating facilities, and any US physician could participate as a local physician-principal investigator. Eligible patients were hospitalized, were aged 18 years or older, and had-or were at risk of progression to-severe or life-threatening COVID-19; eligible patients were enrolled through the EAP central website. Blood collection facilities rapidly implemented programs to collect convalescent plasma for hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Demographic and clinical characteristics of all enrolled patients in the EAP were summarized. Temporal patterns in access to COVID-19 convalescent plasma were investigated by comparing daily and weekly changes in EAP enrollment in response to changes in infection rate at the state level. Geographical analyses on access to convalescent plasma included assessing EAP enrollment in all national hospital referral regions, as well as assessing enrollment in metropolitan areas and less populated areas that did not have access to COVID-19 clinical trials. From April 3 to August 23, 2020, 105,717 hospitalized patients with severe or life-threatening COVID-19 were enrolled in the EAP. The majority of patients were 60 years of age or older (57.8%), were male (58.4%), and had overweight or obesity (83.8%). There was substantial inclusion of minorities and underserved populations: 46.4% of patients were of a race other than white, and 37.2% of patients were of Hispanic ethnicity. Chronologically and geographically, increases in the number of both enrollments and transfusions in the EAP closely followed confirmed infections across all 50 states. Nearly all national hospital referral regions enrolled and transfused patients in the EAP, including both in metropolitan and in less populated areas. The incidence of serious adverse events was objectively low (<1%), and the overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 25.2% (95% CI, 25.0% to 25.5%). This registry study was limited by the observational and pragmatic study design that did not include a control or comparator group; thus, the data should not be used to infer definitive treatment effects. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the EAP provided widespread access to COVID-19 convalescent plasma in all 50 states, including for underserved racial and ethnic minority populations. The study design of the EAP may serve as a model for future efforts when broad access to a treatment is needed in response to an emerging infectious disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT#: NCT04338360.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Compassionate Use Trials/methods , Health Services Needs and Demand/statistics & numerical data , Hospital Distribution Systems/organization & administration , Registries , Transfusion Reaction/complications , Transfusion Reaction/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Ethnic and Racial Minorities , Female , Humans , Immunization, Passive/adverse effects , Immunization, Passive/methods , Inpatients , Male , Medically Underserved Area , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Patient Safety , SARS-CoV-2 , Treatment Outcome , United States , COVID-19 Serotherapy
8.
J Clin Microbiol ; 59(9): e0123121, 2021 08 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1501537

ABSTRACT

Longitudinal studies assessing durability of the anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) humoral immune response have generated conflicting results. This has been proposed to be due to differences in patient populations, the lack of standardized methodologies, and the use of assays that measure distinct aspects of the humoral response. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were serially measured in sera from a cohort of 44 well-characterized convalescent plasma donors over 120 days post-COVID-19 symptom onset, utilizing eight assays, which varied according to antigen source, the detected antibody isotype, and the activity measured (i.e., binding, blocking, or neutralizing). While the majority of assays demonstrated a gradual decline in antibody titers over the course of 120 days, the two electrochemiluminescence immunoassay Roche assays (Roche Diagnostics Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 [qualitative, nucleocapsid based] and Roche Diagnostics Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 S [semiquantitative, spike based]), which utilize dual-antigen binding for antibody detection, demonstrated stable and/or increasing antibody titers over the study period. This study is among the first to assess longitudinal, rather than cross-sectional, SARS-CoV-2 antibody profiles among convalescent COVID-19 patients, primarily using commercially available serologic assays with Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization. We show that SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection is dependent on the serologic method used, which has implications for future assay utilization and clinical value.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19/therapy , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Immunization, Passive , Kinetics , Sensitivity and Specificity , COVID-19 Serotherapy
11.
J Clin Invest ; 130(9): 4791-4797, 2020 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1365265

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDConvalescent plasma is the only antibody-based therapy currently available for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It has robust historical precedence and sound biological plausibility. Although promising, convalescent plasma has not yet been shown to be safe as a treatment for COVID-19.METHODSThus, we analyzed key safety metrics after transfusion of ABO-compatible human COVID-19 convalescent plasma in 5000 hospitalized adults with severe or life-threatening COVID-19, with 66% in the intensive care unit, as part of the US FDA expanded access program for COVID-19 convalescent plasma.RESULTSThe incidence of all serious adverse events (SAEs), including mortality rate (0.3%), in the first 4 hours after transfusion was <1%. Of the 36 reported SAEs, there were 25 reported incidences of related SAEs, including mortality (n = 4), transfusion-associated circulatory overload (n = 7), transfusion-related acute lung injury (n = 11), and severe allergic transfusion reactions (n = 3). However, only 2 of 36 SAEs were judged as definitely related to the convalescent plasma transfusion by the treating physician. The 7-day mortality rate was 14.9%.CONCLUSIONGiven the deadly nature of COVID-19 and the large population of critically ill patients included in these analyses, the mortality rate does not appear excessive. These early indicators suggest that transfusion of convalescent plasma is safe in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT04338360.FUNDINGMayo Clinic, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (75A50120C00096), National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (UL1TR002377), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (5R35HL139854 and R01 HL059842), National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (5T32DK07352), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (PDF-532926-2019), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (R21 AI145356, R21 AI152318, and AI152078), Schwab Charitable Fund, United Health Group, National Basketball Association, Millennium Pharmaceuticals, and Octapharma USA Inc.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Compassionate Use Trials , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Female , Humans , Immunization, Passive/adverse effects , Immunization, Passive/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Safety , Transfusion Reaction/epidemiology , Transfusion Reaction/etiology , Transfusion-Related Acute Lung Injury/epidemiology , Transfusion-Related Acute Lung Injury/etiology , United States/epidemiology , United States Food and Drug Administration , Young Adult , COVID-19 Serotherapy
12.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 4864, 2021 08 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1354101

ABSTRACT

Successful therapeutics and vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have harnessed the immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Evidence that SARS-CoV-2 exists as locally evolving variants suggests that immunological differences may impact the effectiveness of antibody-based treatments such as convalescent plasma and vaccines. Considering that near-sourced convalescent plasma likely reflects the antigenic composition of local viral strains, we hypothesize that convalescent plasma has a higher efficacy, as defined by death within 30 days of transfusion, when the convalescent plasma donor and treated patient were in close geographic proximity. Results of a series of modeling techniques applied to approximately 28,000 patients from the Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma program (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04338360) support this hypothesis. This work has implications for the interpretation of clinical studies, the ability to develop effective COVID-19 treatments, and, potentially, for the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines as additional locally-evolving variants continue to emerge.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Plasma/immunology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Antibody Specificity , Antigenic Variation , Blood Donors , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Humans , Immunization, Passive/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Treatment Outcome , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult , COVID-19 Serotherapy
14.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 8: 684151, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1282395

ABSTRACT

Convalescent plasma has been used worldwide to treat patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and prevent disease progression. Despite global usage, uncertainty remains regarding plasma efficacy, as randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have provided divergent evidence regarding the survival benefit of convalescent plasma. Here, we argue that during a global health emergency, the mosaic of evidence originating from multiple levels of the epistemic hierarchy should inform contemporary policy and healthcare decisions. Indeed, worldwide matched-control studies have generally found convalescent plasma to improve COVID-19 patient survival, and RCTs have demonstrated a survival benefit when transfused early in the disease course but limited or no benefit later in the disease course when patients required greater supportive therapies. RCTs have also revealed that convalescent plasma transfusion contributes to improved symptomatology and viral clearance. To further investigate the effect of convalescent plasma on patient mortality, we performed a meta-analytical approach to pool daily survival data from all controlled studies that reported Kaplan-Meier survival plots. Qualitative inspection of all available Kaplan-Meier survival data and an aggregate Kaplan-Meier survival plot revealed a directionally consistent pattern among studies arising from multiple levels of the epistemic hierarchy, whereby convalescent plasma transfusion was generally associated with greater patient survival. Given that convalescent plasma has a similar safety profile as standard plasma, convalescent plasma should be implemented within weeks of the onset of future infectious disease outbreaks.

15.
Elife ; 102021 06 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1278700

ABSTRACT

Background: The US Food and Drug Administration authorized COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients via the Expanded Access Program (EAP) and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), leading to use in about 500,000 patients during the first year of the pandemic for the USA. Methods: We tracked the number of CCP units dispensed to hospitals by blood banking organizations and correlated that usage with hospital admission and mortality data. Results: CCP usage per admission peaked in Fall 2020, with more than 40% of inpatients estimated to have received CCP between late September and early November 2020. However, after randomized controlled trials failed to show a reduction in mortality, CCP usage per admission declined steadily to a nadir of less than 10% in March 2021. We found a strong inverse correlation (r = -0.52, p=0.002) between CCP usage per hospital admission and deaths occurring 2 weeks after admission, and this finding was robust to examination of deaths taking place 1, 2, or 3 weeks after admission. Changes in the number of hospital admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and age of patients could not explain these findings. The retreat from CCP usage might have resulted in as many as 29,000 excess deaths from mid-November 2020 to February 2021. Conclusions: A strong inverse correlation between CCP use and mortality per admission in the USA provides population-level evidence consistent with the notion that CCP reduces mortality in COVID-19 and suggests that the recent decline in usage could have resulted in excess deaths. Funding: There was no specific funding for this study. AC was supported in part by RO1 HL059842 and R01 AI1520789; MJJ was supported in part by 5R35HL139854. This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the Department of Health and Human Services; Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority under Contract No. 75A50120C00096.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Age Factors , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Immunization, Passive/methods , Immunization, Passive/statistics & numerical data , Linear Models , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19 Serotherapy
16.
Transfusion ; 61(8): 2503-2511, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1243670

ABSTRACT

In the absence of effective countermeasures, human convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the causative agent of novel coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), including among patients with innate or acquired immunosuppression. However, the association between COVID-19-associated mortality in patients with immunosuppression and therapeutic use of convalescent plasma is unknown. We review 75 reports, including one large matched-control registry study of 143 COVID-19 patients with hematological malignancies, and 51 case reports and 23 case series representing 238 COVID-19 patients with immunosuppression. We review clinical features and treatment protocols of COVID-19 patients with immunosuppression after treatment with human convalescent plasma. We also discuss the time course and clinical features of recovery. The available data from case reports and case series provide evidence suggesting a mortality benefit and rapid clinical improvement in patients with several forms of immunosuppression following COVID-19 convalescent plasma transfusion. The utility of convalescent plasma or other forms of antibody therapy in immune-deficient and immune-suppressed patients with COVID-19 warrants further investigation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/therapy , Immune Tolerance , COVID-19/immunology , Hematologic Neoplasms/complications , Hematologic Neoplasms/immunology , Humans , Immunization, Passive/methods , Immunologic Deficiency Syndromes/complications , Immunologic Deficiency Syndromes/immunology , Organ Transplantation/adverse effects , Treatment Outcome , COVID-19 Serotherapy
17.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(5): 1262-1275, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1219471

ABSTRACT

To determine the effect of COVID-19 convalescent plasma on mortality, we aggregated patient outcome data from 10 randomized clinical trials, 20 matched control studies, 2 dose-response studies, and 96 case reports or case series. Studies published between January 1, 2020, and January 16, 2021, were identified through a systematic search of online PubMed and MEDLINE databases. Random effects analyses of randomized clinical trials and matched control data demonstrated that patients with COVID-19 transfused with convalescent plasma exhibited a lower mortality rate compared with patients receiving standard treatments. Additional analyses showed that early transfusion (within 3 days of hospital admission) of higher titer plasma is associated with lower patient mortality. These data provide evidence favoring the efficacy of human convalescent plasma as a therapeutic agent in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19/mortality , Humans , Immunization, Passive/methods , Mortality , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Time-to-Treatment , COVID-19 Serotherapy
18.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(7): 1890-1895, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1202099

ABSTRACT

Predictive models have played a critical role in local, national, and international response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, health care systems and governmental agencies have relied on several models, such as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Youyang Gu (YYG), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble, to predict short- and long-term trends in disease activity. The Mayo Clinic Bayesian SIR model, recently made publicly available, has informed Mayo Clinic practice leadership at all sites across the United States and has been shared with Minnesota governmental leadership to help inform critical decisions during the past year. One key to the accuracy of the Mayo Clinic model is its ability to adapt to the constantly changing dynamics of the pandemic and uncertainties of human behavior, such as changes in the rate of contact among the population over time and by geographic location and now new virus variants. The Mayo Clinic model can also be used to forecast COVID-19 trends in different hypothetical worlds in which no vaccine is available, vaccinations are no longer being accepted from this point forward, and 75% of the population is already vaccinated. Surveys indicate that half of American adults are hesitant to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, and lack of understanding of the benefits of vaccination is an important barrier to use. The focus of this paper is to illustrate the stark contrast between these 3 scenarios and to demonstrate, mathematically, the benefit of high vaccine uptake on the future course of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , Forecasting , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/trends , Humans , United States/epidemiology
19.
Circulation ; 143(13): 1274-1286, 2021 03 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1180993

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) prolongation, whether secondary to drugs, genetics including congenital long QT syndrome, and/or systemic diseases including SARS-CoV-2-mediated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), can predispose to ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Currently, QTc assessment and monitoring relies largely on 12-lead electrocardiography. As such, we sought to train and validate an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled 12-lead ECG algorithm to determine the QTc, and then prospectively test this algorithm on tracings acquired from a mobile ECG (mECG) device in a population enriched for repolarization abnormalities. METHODS: Using >1.6 million 12-lead ECGs from 538 200 patients, a deep neural network (DNN) was derived (patients for training, n = 250 767; patients for testing, n = 107 920) and validated (n = 179 513 patients) to predict the QTc using cardiologist-overread QTc values as the "gold standard". The ability of this DNN to detect clinically-relevant QTc prolongation (eg, QTc ≥500 ms) was then tested prospectively on 686 patients with genetic heart disease (50% with long QT syndrome) with QTc values obtained from both a 12-lead ECG and a prototype mECG device equivalent to the commercially-available AliveCor KardiaMobile 6L. RESULTS: In the validation sample, strong agreement was observed between human over-read and DNN-predicted QTc values (-1.76±23.14 ms). Similarly, within the prospective, genetic heart disease-enriched dataset, the difference between DNN-predicted QTc values derived from mECG tracings and those annotated from 12-lead ECGs by a QT expert (-0.45±24.73 ms) and a commercial core ECG laboratory [10.52±25.64 ms] was nominal. When applied to mECG tracings, the DNN's ability to detect a QTc value ≥500 ms yielded an area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.97, 80.0%, and 94.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using smartphone-enabled electrodes, an AI DNN can predict accurately the QTc of a standard 12-lead ECG. QTc estimation from an AI-enabled mECG device may provide a cost-effective means of screening for both acquired and congenital long QT syndrome in a variety of clinical settings where standard 12-lead electrocardiography is not accessible or cost-effective.


Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , Electrocardiography/methods , Heart Diseases/diagnosis , Heart Rate/physiology , Adult , Aged , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/physiopathology , COVID-19/virology , Electrocardiography/instrumentation , Female , Heart Diseases/physiopathology , Humans , Long QT Syndrome/diagnosis , Long QT Syndrome/physiopathology , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Sensitivity and Specificity , Smartphone
20.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(5): 1165-1174, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1157598

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in health care personnel. METHODS: The Mayo Clinic Serology Screening Program was created to provide a voluntary, two-stage testing program for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to health care personnel. The first stage used a dried blood spot screening test initiated on June 15, 2020. Those participants identified as reactive were advised to have confirmatory testing via a venipuncture. Venipuncture results through August 8, 2020, were considered. Consent and authorization for testing was required to participate in the screening program. This report, which was conducted under an institutional review board-approved protocol, only includes employees who have further authorized their records for use in research. RESULTS: A total of 81,113 health care personnel were eligible for the program, and of these 29,606 participated in the screening program. A total of 4284 (14.5%) of the dried blood spot test results were "reactive" and warranted confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing was completed on 4094 (95.6%) of the screen reactive with an overall seroprevalence rate of 0.60% (95% CI, 0.52% to 0.69%). Significant variation in seroprevalence was observed by region of the country and age group. CONCLUSION: The seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies through August 8, 2020, was found to be lower than previously reported in other health care organizations. There was an observation that seroprevalence may be associated with community disease burden.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19 Serological Testing , COVID-19 , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Academic Medical Centers , Adult , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19 Serological Testing/methods , COVID-19 Serological Testing/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Male , Middle Aged , Public Health/methods , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , United States/epidemiology
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